The fateful day that will determine Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's political life and whether he retains his mayoral position is fast approaching tomorrow.

The Seoul Central District Court will deliver its first-instance ruling tomorrow (the 22nd) at 2 PM for Mayor Oh, who has been indicted on charges of violating the Political Funds Act. The core of this case is whether, during the 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election, he received results of 10 public opinion polls from Myung Tae-kyun and had a third-party businessman pay the costs (33 million won) on his behalf.

The essence of this trial goes beyond mere criminal punishment; it lies in whether it will bring a political death sentence of 'invalidation of the mayoral position.' Under current law, if a fine of 1 million won or more is finalized for violating the Political Funds Act, the election is nullified and the right to run for office is stripped. Since the special prosecutor previously demanded a heavy sentence of 1 year and 6 months in prison, if the court accepts the special prosecutor's argument and hands down a sentence invalidating the election (a fine of 1 million won or more), Mayor Oh will immediately be trapped in fatal judicial risk and lose the momentum for municipal administration.

The battle between the two sides reached its peak until the day before the ruling. The special prosecutor's side recently submitted an opinion letter regarding former President Yoon Suk-yeol's similar first-instance guilty verdict to the court, pressing Mayor Oh as the actual client.

On the other hand, Mayor Oh's side is strongly protesting, claiming it is a public opinion campaign to shake the court. Mayor Oh's side emphasizes that there are no recordings or messages whatsoever discussing public opinion polls directly with Myung. In particular, citing forensic analysis results that showed the questionnaire was drafted about an hour earlier than the time Myung claimed he was commissioned to conduct the survey via phone call, they have poked at structural flaws in the indictment facts.

Depending on whether the court hands down a sentence resulting in the loss of the mayoral position of 'a fine of 1 million won or more' tomorrow, or lends weight to the theory of political prosecution through an acquittal, the future direction of the political landscape is expected to fluctuate wildly.